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Probability Calculator

Probability
16.67%
Decimal: 0.1667
Fraction: 1/6
Odds: 1:5

Understanding Probability (Without the Headache)

Probability is just a fancy way of saying "how likely is this to happen?" It's the math of uncertainty. Whether you're flipping a coin, rolling dice, or checking the weather forecast, you're using probability.

Probability vs. Odds

This is where most people get tripped up. They sound the same, but they aren't.

  • Probability: Successes / Total Attempts (e.g., 1/6 for rolling a 6).
  • Odds: Successes : Failures (e.g., 1:5 for rolling a 6).

💡 Expert Insight from Dr. Alex M., Ph.D.

"The most counter-intuitive thing about probability? Independence. If you flip a coin and get Heads 10 times in a row, the chance of the next flip being Heads is still exactly 50%. The coin has no memory. Don't fall for the 'Gambler's Fallacy' thinking a Tails is 'due'."

⚠️ Common Mistake: Adding Probabilities Wrong

If you want the probability of Event A OR Event B happening, you add them (if they are mutually exclusive).
If you want Event A AND Event B happening, you multiply them (if they are independent).
Don't mix these up! Adding when you should multiply leads to probabilities > 100%, which is impossible.

👨‍🏫

Reviewed by Dr. Alex M., Ph.D.

Mathematics Professor

Last updated: November 2025

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between Probability and Odds?

Probability compares what you want to happen vs. EVERYTHING that could happen (1 in 6 chance of rolling a die). Odds compare what you want to happen vs. what you DON'T want to happen (1:5 odds of rolling a 6). It's subtle but important for gambling and statistics.

How do I calculate probability?

Simple formula: Favorable Outcomes / Total Possible Outcomes. If there are 5 red marbles and 15 blue ones (20 total), the probability of picking red is 5/20, which simplifies to 1/4 or 25%.

Can probability be greater than 1?

Nope. Probability is always between 0 (impossible) and 1 (certain). If you get 1.5, you did the math wrong. Percentages can't go over 100% in probability.

What does 'independent events' mean?

It means one event doesn't affect the other. Flipping a coin twice? The first flip doesn't change the second flip. It's still 50/50. This is where gamblers get it wrong (The Gambler's Fallacy).

How do I convert odds to probability?

If odds are A:B, probability is A / (A+B). Example: Odds of 1:4 means probability is 1 / (1+4) = 1/5 or 20%.

📚 References